Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 1.796317 1.894984 1.998023 2.113983 2.241253 2.377136 2.533790
2025-10-05 1.670030 1.810530 1.964033 2.145446 2.355651 2.593640 2.886517
2025-10-12 1.592700 1.759258 1.947030 2.176864 2.454108 2.782505 3.208442
2025-10-19 1.531854 1.717158 1.931353 2.201146 2.537756 2.952346 3.515999
2025-10-26 1.465580 1.661841 1.893211 2.191405 2.573876 3.060668 3.750081
2025-11-02 1.408790 1.613162 1.858202 2.180405 2.603949 3.159335 3.976514
2025-11-09 1.352775 1.561646 1.815637 2.155320 2.611367 3.225212 4.159968
2025-11-16 1.302034 1.513731 1.774358 2.128184 2.612316 3.279716 4.329223
2025-11-23 1.268729 1.485799 1.756483 2.129791 2.650973 3.388245 4.589625
2025-11-30 1.244797 1.468365 1.750742 2.146413 2.710343 3.529882 4.917192
2025-12-07 1.205020 1.428734 1.713871 2.117989 2.702651 3.569380 5.079397
2025-12-14 1.164313 1.386355 1.671513 2.079552 2.677444 3.579066 5.189974
2025-12-21 1.125606 1.345868 1.630855 2.042537 2.653482 3.590841 5.309608
2025-12-28 1.113639 1.340219 1.636811 2.071705 2.730287 3.769367 5.758274
2026-01-04 1.102708 1.335332 1.643263 2.101393 2.809149 3.957626 6.255994
2026-01-11 1.090167 1.327671 1.645316 2.124321 2.878361 4.135354 6.764069
2026-01-18 1.067806 1.305836 1.626590 2.115124 2.895012 4.221915 7.093557
2026-01-25 1.046342 1.284535 1.607778 2.104737 2.908706 4.303746 7.426570
2026-02-01 1.021846 1.258338 1.581085 2.081042 2.898657 4.340503 7.661002
2026-02-08 0.997970 1.232366 1.553894 2.055400 2.883726 4.366529 7.874144
2026-02-15 0.983471 1.219071 1.544507 2.056918 2.914934 4.483426 8.338707
2026-02-22 0.973850 1.212303 1.544282 2.072627 2.971364 4.654967 8.988063
2026-03-01 0.952395 1.188258 1.517993 2.045762 2.951110 4.669715 9.207325